Roberto San Jose – Technical University of Madrid
1Environmental Software and Modelling Group, Computer Science School, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
Over the past two centuries, there has been a rapid rise in CO2 levels, largely attributed to emissions from fossil fuel combustion. To gain insights into the complex dynamics of CO2 flux and concentration, this research employs a coupled modeling approach integrating the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model with the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The aim is to simulate CO2 transport, dispersion, and concentrations at a high spatial resolution from the year 2015 to 2050.To drive the future simulations global climate model output is utilized as boundary conditions. The climate model data is acquired from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which offers a range of possible global climate scenarios. Specifically, this study considers four scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Each scenario represents a different trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic development. The simulation results shed light on how these concentrations are influenced by the spatial distribution of emission sources and the impact of climate data. Through this approach, researchers can better understand the factors contributing to changes in CO2 levels and their potential implications for the Earth’s climate system. This can help identify in advance areas with particularly high or low concentrations and provide valuable information for policymakers, scientists, and stakeholders working on climate change mitigation strategies. Furthermore, the inclusion of the vegetation photosynthesis and respiration model provides insights into the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle and their influence on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This research contributes to our knowledge of how CO2 levels may evolve in the coming decades.
Co-Author: Juan Luis Perez-Camaño, Libia Perez, Technical University of Madrid
